ICC Releases Exact NRR Margin Pakistan Needs to Advance

With their final fixture in the Super 8s round of the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 Cricket World Cup tournament, Pakistan has been dealt renewed hope for a semi-finals berth after New Zealand lost to England in their match on Friday February 27, 2026. Faced with competing against co-host of the competition Sri Lanka, a team which is effectively already out of contention for the semi-finals, Pakistan now has a chance to overtake New Zealand for the second of two Group 2 berths to advance, but only with a very specific Net Run Rate (NRR) margin.

The T20 Cricket World Cup’s organizing body, International Cricket Council (ICC), has released the exact margin Pakistan needs to aim for in their game against Sri Lanka on Saturday February 28, 2026 in order to advance to the semi-finals next week. Here’s what you need to know about that specific margin and the scenarios it will take for Pakistan’s national T20 cricket team to make it out of the Super 8s and continue with the tournament, rather than be the team to go home.

ICC’s Statement of Exact Margin For Pakistan to Advance to Semi-Finals

Given that Net Run Rate (NRR) margins is often the deciding factor for advancement out of the group stage and/or Super 8s into the semi-finals for T20 cricket competitions such as the 2026 T20 World Cup, going into a game well prepared for the specific margins needed to secure a spot in the next round of match play is a wise statistic to know. When two teams end a bracket round of competition with equal points, then NRR is used to determine the team that will advance.

Net Run Rate is a mathematical equation which uses the following formula to decipher a team’s advantage:

NRR = (Total Runs Scored / Total Overs Faced) – (Total Runs Conceded / Total Overs Bowled)

This situation is likely to happen if New Zealand and Pakistan both win their final Super 8 fixtures and both country’s national T20 cricket teams conclude the Group 2 fixtures with three points. If that occurs, then Pakistan will need to outperform New Zealand’s NRR. “To overtake New Zealand on Net Run Rate, they’ll need to beat Dasun Shanaka’s side by more than 65 runs, or chase down a target inside 13 overs, though the figures won’t be exactly known until after the first innings of the match,” says the ICC.

However, NRR will only decide which team is extended the semi-finals berth if Pakistan wins against Sri Lanka and New Zealand wins their final Super 8s fixture. If one team loses their final game while the other team wins their concluding match, then the team that wins will be given the berth to continue the tournament. Within Group 2, England has already secured the first of the group’s two berths to advance while Sri Lanka is mathematically unable to achieve a berth even if they defeat Pakistan.

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