Andreeva vs. Mboko: Who holds the edge in a battle of prodigies?

New Year’s resolutions are famously unsustainable, for effecting change can be difficult.

But only two weeks into the 2026 WTA Tour Driven by Mercedes-Benz season, there’s already been a dramatic shift in the wind. The three youngest players in the Top 30 are among the four finalists Saturday in Adelaide and Hobart.

Eighteen-year-old Mirra Andreeva takes on Victoria Mboko, 19, in the WTA 500 Adelaide International championship match (12:30 p.m. local, 9 p.m. ET). Meanwhile, Iva Jovic, 18, meets qualifier Elisabetta Cocciaretto in Hobart (1 p.m. local, 9 p.m. ET). At 24, Cocciaretto is the only non-teenager.

This is no random occurrence. Andreeva and Mboko won three of last year’s WTA 1000 events -- Andreeva in Dubai and Indian Wells, and Mboko in Montreal. Jovic took the title at the WTA 500 in Guadalajara.

While these are both first-time confrontations at the Tour level, Andreeva and Mboko are more than familiar with each other going back to juniors.

“I know Vicky since I'm 12,” Andreeva told reporters after defeating good friend and doubles partner Diana Shnaider 6-3, 6-2 in the semifinals. “I felt like she's been playing well, and she's been raising her level tournament to tournament. She's a very nice girl. I think that we're good friends.”

Mboko, a 6-2, 6-1 winner over wild card Kimberly Birrell, said Andreeva’s success over the past two years offered proof that she could do it, too.

“Seeing her uprise, I think it's motivating for me, and I think a lot of young girls out there who want to play at this level of tennis,” Mboko said. “Yeah, it's just a nice thing to see. She's a super nice girl, and we're quite good friends off the court.”

Last year, they went a combined 4-0 in WTA Tour-level finals, so something’s got to give.

Our resident writers, Greg Garber and Brad Kallet, break these two finals down:

Adelaide International final: No. 3 Mirra Andreeva vs. No. 8 Victoria Mboko

Garber's take: It’s funny, Brad, just before Christmas we discussed the merits of these two ascendant teenagers. January, we noted, was all about proving that their youth movement was here to stay. And that’s just what they’ve done. Mboko has had the more impressive run, saving two match points against Anna Kalinskaya and beating defending Australian Open champion Madison Keys in the quarterfinals. The abrupt win over Birrell was Mboko’s sixth match of the year -- and the first one that didn’t go three sets.

Andreeva, who faded out at the end of last year, has been impressive in Adelaide, dropping only 11 games in six sets, and she has a big edge in experience in these kinds of matches. I look for her to win this one.

Kallet's take: Andreeva sure has looked rock solid this week, Greg. She's yet to drop more than three games in a set and has yet to really be challenged, displaying the confidence and poise that we saw early in 2025. Mboko, as you mentioned, has had the complete opposite week. Battle after battle after battle (save for her much-needed rout of Birrell, which was straightforward). The numbers are striking: Andreeva has played 47 games in Adelaide; Mboko has played 102, plus a tiebreaker (though the Canadian has played one more match).

Which holds more weight coming into their final? Andreeva's dominance or Mboko's resilience and grittiness? Easy to make an argument for both, but I'm inclined to go with Mboko, who just keeps finding a way to get it done. And her win over Keys, in particular, impressed me.

Hobart International final: No. 3 Iva Jovic vs. qualifier Elisabetta Cocciaretto

Garber's take: You could see Jovic coming last summer, when she extended two-time major singles champion Barbora Krejcikova to three sets in Cincinnati. “I wish I played like her when I was 17," Krejcikova said after that match. "I feel like she’s [going to have] a great future ahead of her.” That future seems to be, well, now, Brad. A win over Cocciaretto will move her into the Top 25 of the PIF WTA Rankings.

Jovic has shown some resilience in Hobart, defeating Magda Linette and wild card Taylah Preston in three-set matches. I like her poise; she was down 5-1 in the first set against Preston but didn’t panic, winning three of the next four games. Although she lost that opener, she turned the momentum around and picked up a forceful win. I think she’ll do it again against Cocciaretto.

Kallet’s take: Agree with everything you're saying, Greg. Jovic proved last year that a future star turn was likely, and all she's done so far in 2026 is reaffirm that narrative. Remember that before arriving in Hobart, she took three of four matches in Auckland to reach the semifinals, where she lost the opening set in a tiebreaker to eventual champion Elina Svitolina. She's now 7-1 to start the year.

I do want to give necessary props to Cocciaretto, though. She's been quietly brilliant all week, winning five matches in straight sets (including two in qualifying) and a sixth over World No. 38 Ann Li, after dropping the opener 6-1. Still, I'm going with Jovic to snag a second title and continue her ascension.

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