Australian Open 2026 Predictions: Favorites, Dark Horses & Best Bets

The first tennis Grand Slam of 2026 begins Sunday, Jan. 18 from the hard courts of Melbourne, Australia, with the first action taking place Sunday morning down under, which will still be Saturday evening in the U.S. Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz have combined to split the last eight men's Grand Slam titles, and they are the two clear favorites in a field with a dearth of alternative top contenders, though 38-year-old Novak Djokovic remains a viable dark horse candidate as he tries to add to his record totals of 24 Grand Slam singles titles and 10 Australian Open titles.

Before we get to the favorites, contenders and sleepers at the Australian Open, let's acknowledge some notable injuries and absences. Jack Draper (arm), Arthur Fils (back) and Holger Rune (Achilles) are all unavailable, with Rune expected to miss most or all of the 2026 season. Local fan favorites Nick Kyrgios and Thanasi Kokkinakis won't play in the singles draw, though the 2022 Australian Open men's doubles champions may still team up again in that less physically grueling format. Djokovic had a neck injury pop up in the lead-up to the tournament but seemingly intends to play.

There's a big gap in odds between the top two favorites on the men's side and the rest of the field, then another large gap after a group of secondary contenders headlined by Djokovic. After each player's name below, you will see their title odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. Other best sports betting sites for betting both tennis futures and individual matches include FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM and Caesars Sportsbook. Tennis Odds & Lines can vary quite substantially, especially for long shots, so you are encouraged to shop around for the best lines if you have access to multiple sports betting apps. We offer exclusive sportsbook promos in states where sports betting has gone live.

Australian Open ATP Picks

The Favorite for the 2026 Australian Open

Jannik Sinner (+110) - Sinner and Alcaraz have split the four Grand Slams in each of the last two years, with Sinner winning three of the four hard-court majors over that span. The 24-year-old Italian's title count includes each of the past two Australian Opens, but he lost his most recent major matchup against Alcaraz in the U.S. Open final to snap Sinner's hard-court Grand Slam winning streak at 27 matches. Since the start of 2024, Sinner has only two non-Alcaraz losses on hard courts. The No. 2 seed could face an early test in the third round here, though, as Sinner's chalk opponent would be No. 28 seed Joao Fonseca -- a talented 19-year-old Brazilian that many view as having the potential to eventually challenge Alcaraz and Sinner's dominance of the ATP Tour. Sinner's potential opponents after that are 15th-seeded Karen Khachanov in the Round of 16, No. 8 seed Ben Shelton in the quarterfinals and No. 4 Djokovic in the semis, who each present unique challenges if healthy but would be substantial underdogs against Sinner. While this is a more difficult path than average, Sinner's primary concern remains a potential championship match against Alcaraz, as Alcaraz leads their head-to-head 10-6, including 7-3 on hard courts.

In the Mix for the 2026 Australian Open

Carlos Alcaraz (+180) - Alcaraz is already a six-time Grand Slam champion at age 22, though he has yet to advance past the quarterfinals of the Australian Open and will be trying to do so without former coach Juan Carlos Ferrero, with whom Alcaraz recently parted ways. He has demonstrated a lower floor than Sinner, suffering the occasional surprise loss, but Alcaraz's 71-9 record in 2025 en route to the world No. 1 ranking shows he isn't particularly upset-prone. The biggest potential obstacles on his path to the quarterfinals are Americans, with Sebastian Korda lurking as a possible third-round opponent, then 19th-seeded Tommy Paul, big-serving Reilly Opelka or Alcaraz's 14th-seeded Spanish compatriot Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the Round of 16. Alcaraz could face sixth-seeded Australian Alex de Minaur or 10th-seeded big server Alexander Bublik in the quarterfinals before a potential opportunity in the semifinals for the Spaniard to avenge his 2024 quarterfinal loss to No. 3 seed Alexander Zverev. Neither Alcaraz nor Sinner need much additional motivation as they rapidly ascend the list of tennis all-time greats, but Alcaraz could have just a little more bulletin board material at the Australian Open considering he needs to win this title to collect the full set of all four Grand Slams and will be eager to show the world what he can do without Ferrero. Given the minimal separation between the two, I would rather have Alcaraz at +180 than Sinner at -110 odds.

Novak Djokovic (+1600) - Djokovic's last tournament action came in early November, and the 38-year-old legend is seemingly starting to lose the battle to Father Time as his injuries pile up, including the neck issue that cut short his practice session Wednesday. He has played effectively through injuries before and still managed to reach the semifinals of all four Grand Slams in 2025, losing twice to Sinner and once to Alcaraz but also posting a win over Alcaraz at last year's Australian Open before retiring against Zverev due to an injury. Djokovic's lack of recent match play suggests he will need to play his way into form, but his draw isn't too daunting prior to the Round of 16. The 24-time Grand Slam champion's five-match losing streak against Sinner doesn't inspire much confidence for the outcome of their potential semifinal matchup, especially since Djokovic has lost their last nine sets head-to-head, so his best chance here would seemingly be someone else knocking out Sinner first to create a more favorable stylistic matchup.

Daniil Medvedev (+3000) andAlexander Zverev (+3500) are the only other men with title odds better than +6000 heading into the tournament, as few players are given much of a chance to break the Sincaraz portmanteau's stranglehold on the men's game. Medvedev's seeded 11th coming off a disastrous 2025 season in which he went 1-4 in Grand Slam matches, but the 29-year-old Russian has played in six hard-court Grand Slam finals, winning one. Zverev is already arguably the best player ever without a Grand Slam title. He's 0-3 in major finals, including a lopsided loss to Sinner in last year's Australian Open championship match, but the third-seeded German has respectable records against Alcaraz and Sinner overall at 6-6 and 4-6, respectively. Both Medvedev and Zverev will need to take care of business early then hope for A+ serving performances in the second week. They are in the same section of the draw and could face off in the quarterfinals before possibly matching up with Alcaraz in the semifinals, though Medvedev would first have to get through another big server in No. 7 seed Felix Auger-Aliassime.

Sleepers for the 2026 Australian Open

Ben Shelton (+8000) - Shelton had a successful 2025 season, reaching a career-high ranking of No. 5. The 23-year-old American lost twice to Sinner and once to Alcaraz at Grand Slams before retiring at the U.S. Open against Adrian Mannarino due to a shoulder injury from which Shelton managed to return a month later. Shelton's 1-8 record against Sinner doesn't bode well for the No. 8 seed's chances in their potential quarterfinal clash here, but Shelton's young and toolsy enough to turn around that poor head-to-head if he can really lean into his big lefty serve and aggressive game style. Shelton's title odds heading into the U.S. Open were around +2500, so +8000 is an appetizing value here.

Jakub Mensik (+10000) - The 16th-seeded Mensik and No. 9 seed Taylor Fritz (+6000) are the top candidates to make the semifinals from Djokovic's section should the No. 4 seed faulter or get sidelined by injury, as No. 5 seed Lorenzo Musetti is far more comfortable on natural surfaces than hard courts. Mensik could face Djokovic in the Round of 16, and the 20-year-old Czech wouldn't be intimidated by that matchup since Mensik defeated Djokovic in the final of the Miami Open in 2025 to claim a Masters 1000 title. The mental side of best-of-five set tennis has proven tricky for Mensik, as he has led two sets to one in six of his last seven Grand Slam losses, but this could be the year he takes the next step between the ears to complement his impressive physical talent. Mensik has never faced Sinner, whom he could meet in the semifinals here.

Joao Fonseca (+10000) - Realistically, Fonseca isn't getting past Sinner in the third round. That said, the Brazilian teenager can swing freely as the underdog and is one of the few players who can actually absorb and match Sinner's power from the baseline, though Fonseca has a long way to go when it comes to consistency and precision. If Fonseca somehow beats Sinner, a trip the to final would certainly be on the table, even with another three wins needed at that point. Fonseca notched a top-10 win over Andrey Rublev in the first round of the Australian Open last year in what was Fonseca's first Grand Slam main draw match.

Australian Open Prediction

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