Georgia vs Spain Predictions, Lineups, Odds & Tips: Merino to strike in win

Our betting expert expects another win for Spain, with Mikel Merino on target in a relatively low-scoring contest.

Georgia vs Spain Betting Predictions

All odds are courtesy of bet365, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.

Georgia to score under 0.5 goals @ 4/5 with bet365

Mikel Merino to score anytime @ 9/5 with bet365

Under 2.5 goals @ 7/5 with bet365

Hosts to misfire in Tbilisi

The one-sided nature of the recent meeting between these teams suggests it’s going to be very difficult for Georgia on Saturday. While they only lost that match 2-0 in Elche, Willy Sagnol’s team found it impossible to get their dangerous forwards into the game.

Across the 90 minutes, Georgia had just 17% of the ball, one shot and no corners. Their xG tally was just 0.01, with Spain dominant from the first whistle to the last.

With home advantage, they’ll expect to have slightly more of the play. However, La Roja have not yet qualified for the World Cup, so they will again be highly motivated. Georgia’s chances of getting on the scoresheet are also damaged by the injury absence of their key striker Georges Mikautadze.

Georgia vs Spain Prediction 1: Georgia to score under 0.5 goals @ 4/5 with bet365

Merino to continue hot streak

Merino’s emergence as a significant goal threat from midfield has been somewhat surprising, but it’s a welcome boost for Luis de la Fuente. The 29-year-old had only scored twice in 31 international appearances at the end of last year. He has scored eight times in eight matches for his country in 2025.

With six goals in World Cup qualifying in Europe, the Arsenal man is behind only Memphis Depay and Erling Haaland heading into this week’s internationals. He has developed a knack for arriving into the penalty area at the right time, and poses a threat in the air and on the ground.

Merino has also scored three times for the Gunners this term. This season, he has been scoring at a rate of one goal every 131 minutes for both club and country.

Georgia vs Spain Prediction 2: Mikel Merino to score anytime @ 9/5 with bet365

Low-scoring game likely

As was the case during the last international break, Spain are again missing their star wingers Nico Williams and Lamine Yamal. Both players have been struggling with injuries this season.

That may provide further opportunities for Yeremy Pino and Ferran Torres on the flanks. Both are very capable performers, although Spain’s attacking threat is clearly weakened without the two wide players who lit up Euro 2024. There’s a risk they could fall back into the trap of playing slightly more predictable possession football.

Even at home, Georgia will likely focus on defending deep and try to play on the break. Notably, 50% of their matches since their Euros exit against Spain have produced under 2.5 goals, including the reverse fixture in this group. A repeat could be worth backing with an implied probability of 42%.

Georgia vs Spain Prediction 3:Under 2.5 goals @ 7/5 with bet365

Our Analysis: Form of both teams

Unsurprisingly, Spain have been the class act in Group E of World Cup qualifying in Europe. They’ve won all four matches and top the standings, and could potentially seal a place at next summer’s tournament on Saturday.

They were more impressive in September than October, but still head into this match following a 2-0 win over Georgia, and a 4-0 victory against Bulgaria.

It has been a disappointing campaign for the hosts. They’ve lost three of their four group fixtures. A 4-1 defeat in Turkey last time out all but ended their chances of making the World Cup.

Predicted lineups for Georgia vs Spain

Georgia expected lineup: Mamardashvili, Gocholeishvili, Goglichidze, Lochoshvili, Kashia, Kiteishvili, Mekvabishvili, Gagnidze, Davitashvili, Zivzivadze, Kvaratskhelia

Spain expected lineup: Simon, Cucurella, Laporte, Huijsen, Llorente, Zubimendi, Merino, Ruiz, Pino, Oyarzabal, Ferran

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