How to bet on this week’s international mismatches

The race for qualification places in Europe is heating up, with the likes of Spain, France, Croatia, and Belgium hoping to seal their World Cup spots.

International MarketsOddsFaroe Islands +3 Handicap vs Croatia1.41Belgium to win & Under 3.5 goals vs Kazakhstan2.29Turkey to win & Over 3.5 goals vs Bulgaria2.01

Odds courtesy of BetWinner. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

This week’s international mismatches

England are the only European team to have qualified for the World Cup so far. Portugal will also qualify if they win against Ireland on Thursday, but most groups are to be decided on the final matchday.

Goal difference is the tiebreaker when two teams finish level. Therefore, the bigger nations do have an incentive to chase goals when they take on the minnows.

We’ve already seen evidence of that, particularly in Group I, where Norway’s 11-1 win over Moldova may prove decisive. The Scandinavians have a three-point lead over Italy, who have won every match since losing their opener in Oslo. Even if the Azzurri secure victory in their final two fixtures, they’re likely to miss out on the top spot due to goal difference.

However, many of Europe’s smaller nations have improved in recent years. Tiny Andorra restricted Thomas Tuchel’s England to only 1-0 and 2-0 victories in Group K. Kosovo are in genuine contention for qualification in Group B, while the Faroe Islands have won four of their seven games in Group L.

Norway host Estonia, Germany visit Luxembourg, and Belgium travel to Kazakhstan in some of the clearest mismatches this week. Denmark, Turkey, Wales, Croatia, and Italy are also huge favourites to win their next fixtures.

Which minnows are most likely to compete?

Croatia’s next match is at home to the Faroes, who enjoyed a stunning October international break. They cruised to a 4-0 win over Montenegro, before causing a huge upset with a 2-1 victory over Czech Republic. The minnows have won four of the last five matches overall and were only beaten 1-0 when they hosted Croatia in September.

Their success has been built on a much-improved defensive structure, with only 0.86 goals conceded per game in this campaign. The bookies still expect a big home win, but there seems to be value in backing the Faroe Islands with a +3 Handicap against Croatia.

Belgium are also clear favourites for their away match against Kazakhstan. They only need to win one of their final two games to seal qualification, and they have yet to play Liechtenstein. There is no incentive for them to chase a big win in either match, and they’re hampered by injuries to Kevin De Bruyne and Romelu Lukaku.

While they’ve struggled away, the Kazakhs do tend to be much more competitive at home. They’ve only let in two goals in their three home qualifiers, so backing a narrow Belgian win on Saturday may be the way to go.

We may see a more one-sided scoreline when Turkey host Bulgaria. Under Vincenzo Montella, the Turks play an attacking brand of football, with all of their qualifiers producing at least five goals so far. Arda Guler and Kenan Yildiz bring genuine creativity to their side, and they won the reverse fixture 6-1.

Bulgaria are a declining force, and have conceded 4.0 goals per game on average in this campaign, losing every match. There seems to be value in backing Turkey to win and see over 3.5 goals, with an implied probability of 50%.

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