European hangover: Who bettors should oppose ahead of the weekend

Lyon, Newcastle, Crystal Palace, and Aston Villa are among the teams who could be at a disadvantage over the following period.

Weekend SelectionsOddsPSG to beat Lyon1.89Brentford to beat Newcastle2.95Brighton to score 1.5 goals vs Crystal Palace2.43Aston Villa vs Bournemouth - Draw3.55

Odds courtesy of Betway. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

The clubs that may struggle following European games

On an ever-expanding European football calendar, even the continent's best teams can feel the effects of the demanding schedule. Many clubs in Europe slipped up in their final league games before the October international break.

In La Liga, an injury-ravaged Barcelona lost 4-1 at Sevilla in what was their seventh match in 22 days. In the Premier League, Crystal Palace’s club-record 19-game unbeaten run was ended at Everton less than 72 hours after a Conference League match. Meanwhile, Lyon were surprisingly beaten 2-1 at home by Toulouse in Ligue 1, just three days after their Europa League win.

There’s certainly potential for additional surprise results this weekend, as many clubs will play their sixth or seventh matches since the last international break.

Seven Premier League clubs have had to play three consecutive midweek fixtures, with the EFL Cup fourth round taking place between two European weeks. Man City, Arsenal, Liverpool, Crystal Palace, Chelsea, Newcastle, and Tottenham are in that situation.

While some managers have rotated heavily in the cups, the likes of Newcastle and Palace have treated every match seriously. As a result, they could be the most likely to tire out this weekend.

Turnaround times and squad depth could also affect matches between European clubs in the near future. PSG will travel to Lyon to play a crucial Ligue 1 game. The Parisians are at an advantage, as they’ve had two additional days to prepare following their Champions League clash with Bayern Munich.

Which teams are worth backing this weekend?

Bettors can potentially use the trend to spot value this weekend. Plenty of Premier League fixtures could be affected by clubs' fatigue from European fixtures.

Newcastle stand out as one team that may struggle. Despite some favourable fixtures, they still haven’t won an away league game this season.

The Magpies were poor in a disappointing 3-1 defeat against lowly West Ham last weekend. They faced nine shots on target in that match, and created just 0.5 xG. Things are unlikely to improve in their away match against a Brentford side that has won four of their last six matches in all competitions.

Aston Villa have an even shorter turnaround time following their European fixture, ahead of a tough test against Bournemouth. The underlying data remains concerning for Unai Emery’s side, whose tally of 7.5 xG is the second-lowest in the Premier League.

However, they have lost just one of their last 21 home games in the English top flight. Backing a draw when they host the in-form Cherries may be the best bet.

Brighton could also offer value when they visit rivals Crystal Palace, who have fielded strong players in their recent EFL Cup and Conference League matches. The Seagulls have failed to score only once in the Premier League this term and have an average of 2.23 goals per game across all competitions.

In France, PSG could be worth backing, and Luis Enrique will want a response after Tuesday’s defeat to Bayern Munich. Lyon have a really tough away game at Real Betis in the Europa League on Thursday night. Their camp will surely see some fatigued players, particularly given they needed to play with 10 men for 82 minutes at Brest last Sunday.

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